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Governor Perry, you had a chance to secure your legacy today.

With the state budget almost 30% short on money, you could have presented a plan to bridge the gap and provide stability in future budgets.

That's what a great leader would have done.  In moments of peril or in the face of great injustice, real leaders act boldly and become profiles in courage.

Roosevelt gave us the New Deal, Truman desegregated the military, Kennedy set our sights on the Moon and LBJ jammed through the Voting Rights Act.  Even the most recent President Bush performed admirably in the days after 9/11.

Governor, you were a profile in cowardice.  That's right, cowardice.

You're a coward because you shrank from the moment and instead trotted out -- for the umpteenth time -- your hypocritical attacks on the federal government.  It was the same old phantom threats, the same old dog whistles to racists.

And you're a coward because you failed to take responsibility for your role in creating your shortfall in the first place.

That's right: Your shortfall.

It was you - not Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi or anyone else in Washington - who in 2003 played a starring role in creating the structured state budget deficit that so burdens our state.  This is your $27-billion baby, yet you keep trying to leave it at somebody else's doorstep.

Hell, couldn't you have at least acknowledged your lies?  After all, you told a big fib when you said we didn't use stimulus money to balance the 2009 budget.  And you told a real whopper when you said this year's shortfall would be only $12-$14 billion.

A cynic might say it took a lot of guts to tell the people such big fat lies.  But Governor, even you know that's not courage.  No, that's only gall, and Governor you've got it by the gallon.

It's a damned shame you can't use some of that gall to be a great governor.  This state has never seen a better campaigner, and it'll be a long, long time before we do.  You can get elected, but you can't lead.

You're afraid of being held accountable, aren't you?  You want to let somebody else fire the teachers and furlough the state employees.  You want somebody else to jack up college tuition and close colleges.  You want somebody else to get their hands dirty and bring casinos to Texas.

It won't be Rick Perry, will it?  Your eyes are elsewhere, and you're not going to do anything to risk that.

You're going to stay on message while Texas remains a mess.

Share your thoughts, stories, favorite quotes and/or what today means to you.

The Statesman recently highlighted an increase in homicides from 22 in '09 to 37 in '10.  While the piece provided a compelling visualization with the long-term count of homicides in Austin, it did not provide data that adjusted for the city's population growth.  In the chart below, I provide the number of homicides per 100,000 residents within the city's total area, as well as a 3-year trailing average.

Austin appears to have bottomed at around 2.8 homicides per 100k residents.  I wonder if the recent increase in rate volatility combined with the potential for a trailing average uptick in the near future is a result of more young men migrating into Austin, or perhaps a shift in the underlying community demographics towards a younger city.

Given the relatively high proportion of the City of Austin budget dedicated towards public safety, it seems feasible to ask for policymakers and APD to anticipate a demographic shift and begin putting programs (e.g. targeted after-school for boys with behavior issues at school) in place that can mitigate the effects of the shift.  A lot of our effectiveness in catching a potential wave will depend on the urgency placed on public safety risk management by the City Council.  I say 'risk management' because it's unclear if indeed there's a fundamental demographic transition that will make the days of 2.8/100k extremely difficult to repeat; however, the data should make us want to hedge against that possibility.  Hopefully, this chart gets the (some?) conversation started.

Here's my data file in XLSX format (AtxHomicideRate) .  Population numbers come from the City demographer's website.

*UPDATE

In response to the comments section, I've created a visualization of recent crime data from APD in the other leading violent categories:

I think this data reiterates the value of local government considering risk management and/or examining how optimally public safety resources are deployed.  The totals in these categories are indeed much larger and less likely to be distorted by randomness, so the slight but steady increases in aggravated assault and burglary should be noted.

Cross-posted at Keep Austin Wonky. Follow Julio on twitter: @juliogatx.

(Part of a series on San Antonio's municipal elections at Concerned Citizens. I updated my original entry to reflect recent information.)

It's time for the municipal elections in San Antonio and 2011 should prove to be interesting. So that brings me to my home district, District 1. This district is where I predict all the fun will be had for the 2011 election cycle. Currently there are four announced candidates for the seat currently held by Mary Alice Cisneros, who terms out in 2011. Not only do I expect this district to be the hottest race in the munis it's also the one I'll be watching most closely since I live in the district. So who are the candidates at this point and what are their backgrounds?
Understand that at this early stage it's difficult to get a solid read on any candidate. However some key factors are starting to emerge about the candidates in the race that will probably give indication to their campaign strategies. Before I dive into the candidates you might take a read on a post I did about what I think makes a good D1 councilmember. In the post I try to outline the diversity and challenges any candidate might face running in the district and serving on council. I've also talked about a few issues

Chris Forbrich
Let's start with our returning challenger, Chris Forbrich. Forbrich mounted a pretty aggressive campaign against Cisneros in 2009, attacking the councilmember on a variety of community issues including management options for Market Square and La Villita. In the general election Forbrich was able to garner 39% of the vote but couldn't force Cisneros into a run-off.

Since that election Forbrich has remained in "campaign mode" and probably has the most organized and articulated views of any of the campaigns. In his District Plan he outlines many of his positions on a variety of issues. Some are motherhood and apple pie but others like bringing younger families back into District 1 and developing a San Pedro business corridor are more focused. While this gives Forbrich the early advantage it also might make him the most vulnerable since he has staked his position in the race, inviting targets by the other candidates.

Recently in an article in Plaza de Armas, a new media source in San Antonio, Gilbert Garcia wrote about the possibility of Forbrich garnering endorsement by the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, speculating this could help Forbrich in an area where he is struggling - fundraising. I expanded further on Garcia's column by comparing the opportunity to that of Fort Worth Councilmember Joel Burns in an entry called "The Victory Fund Effect." If Forbrich can gain endorsement by the Victory Fund it could help provide him the necessary resources and organization backing needed for race that is predicted to be extremely competitive.

Ralph Medina
Ralph Medina, the retired SAFD District Chief, has announced his candidacy and has launched his website. Medina is a lifelong resident of District 1 so he should have an understanding of the needs. In the few meetings I've had with him Medina possibly could expand his knowledge a little more on the district's challenges but that should come as he gets out into the community. Medina's service as a San Antonio firefighter and District Chief gives him a good working knowledge of one key element in every campaign - public safety and first response.

But with Medina's period as a firefighter comes another aspect of special interests, one being the San Antonio Professional Firefighters Association.  This may not be a bad attribute but it does call into question some loyalty aspects. Will Medina be a true representative of the city in any discussions with the firefighter union or the police union?

Medina has started his campaign by enlisting a strong treasurer with Trish DeBerry. DeBerry's experience in several citywide campaigns is valuable and could help Medina in his quest for one of the most diverse districts in the city. I've always had a high respect for DeBerry's marketing insight and can see her putting that insight to work in this campaign.

One thing I did notice when researching this entry was Medina's first blog post. In it he talked about the desire to leverage Microsoft Sharepoint to help gain citizen insight in the district. I admire his initiative on this, as it echoes a goal Mayor Castro set in his mayoral campaign of virtual neighborhoods. It's something I blogged about after the 2009 campaign, detailing some aspects and examples I've found around the nation.

However, I think calling out Sharepoint specifically without a business case is something we in the I/T industry hate. It's a solution looking for a problem. Besides Sharepoint has pretty steep licensing costs depending on the configuration and usage. There are many open source tools in the industry that don't come with these licensing costs. I applaud Medina for his initiative to create connected communities but caution him on his approach. It's something I hope to talk more about with him in person.

Diego Bernal
Diego Bernal is another candidate who has announced his candidacy for the post. Bernal's background is primarily within social work and community advocacy, serving as the staff attorney for MALDEF after graduating from law school at the University of Michigan. Bernal is a lifelong resident of District 1 and is probably the least experienced of the four candidates in terms of tackling the role of councilmember. What impresses me the most about Bernal is his civil rights and community advocacy as well as his active involvement with the arts community of San Antonio. District 1 is the most diverse and arts related district of all the council districts so Bernal connects well with these communities.

Having that connection and support could help Bernal's grassroots campaign and possibly draw away from the others in terms of core voters, especially Forbrich's base. Bernal also could garner core Democratic support through his treasurer Joe Bernal, a longtime Democratic activist and former state senator. Sen. Bernal is highly respected in Democratic circles and could help lock in this support for Diego in a district that has a large Democratic base. But these constituent bases are only part of the dynamics of District 1, which leads to the final candidate in the council race.

Recently Bernal updated his website with a list of issues he feels are important. Most are what I would call standard issues such as improving first response, fixing sidewalks, and working towards affordable housing. However, he does dig a little deeper on a few items such as increasing curb appeal for areas and businesses leading downtown.

Carolyn Kelley
Carolyn Kelley is the final candidate I've seen announce as a candidate for the council seat. Kelley is the newest resident of the District among the field but has probably the most public service experience, having worked on a number of federal issues including recognition by Pres. Clinton for helping simplify the tax system for small businesses. She currently serves as the president of the Tobin Hill Community Association and has worked to help secure funds for neighborhood improvements and other initiatives for the area.

Kelley's most recent city public service has been as District 1 representative on the Zoning Commission. While that has provided Kelley with a connection within city government and to businesses within the district, it doesn't create other much needed connections within the community. However, Kelley does have probably the best business connection with District 1 businesses of all the candidates, possibly garnering her critical funds for her campaign. In my conversations with Kelley, she has a strong desire to listen to the needs but it's difficult to discern her vision for the district in the conversation. That vision is also not articulated on her website so more needs to be revealed to understand her commitment to the district.

Summary
So far, these are the only candidates I've seen announced for the race. Others have been rumored but with this strong of a field announced this early it's going to be critical for any others to announce now or expect to chase the field through the election. As you can see this is shaping up to be the most dynamic race of the 2011 municipal elections and rightfully so. Someone asked me today why District 1 would garner this strong of a field. I can only point back to my prior blog entry on the strength and diversity of District 1. Where else in the city could you find such an environment? District 1 truly is the strongest district of the city. It's the heart and soul of San Antonio.

I could start to speculate on how the various groups and factions might line up with the candidates and you can probably get a good sense from my first views; however, it will be critical to watch how the candidates nurture these groups in the coming weeks. Locking in some constituent foundations early on will be key to having the ability to close the race. If a candidate doesn't lock a faction in with this wide of a field, that candidate stands to lose strength down the stretch when key funds and volunteer support will be critical.

From what I understand several of the candidates has been secured for voter forums by neighborhood associations and interest groups. As the race progresses I'll try to keep you informed of what I hear about. I encourage you to get to know these candidates if you're a District 1 resident. All bring great strength to the table but each one has flaws that should be identified. After all, where District 1 goes, in my opinion, so goes the city.

Who wants to lead?

Every few years, Burnt Orange Report reinvents itself. It last happened almost five years ago with a major site upgrade that gave our site its current look, and with the expansion of our writing staff from around four regular writers to around eight. In those five years, we've been through:

• Special sessions where Republicans raised taxes while creating a permanent structural deficit that is the primary source of our current $27 billion budget crisis
• The Boyd Richie vs. Glen Maxey TDP Chair race of 2006
• Bob Gammage vs. Chris Bell primary in 2006, and Bell's subsequent run for Governor
• The 2007 Speaker's drama, which culminated in the ousting of Craddick and election of Speaker Straus in 2009
  
• The Rick Noriega U.S. Senate campaign
• Clinton vs. Obama and one hell of a primary
• The election of President Barack Obama
• The Bill White campaign, and the accompanying 2010 massacre
  
• Countless Austin city council races, State House races, and more
  

Throughout the years, Burnt Orange Report has provided an honest, well-researched, progressive viewpoint of Texas politics. We've made passionate arguments, broken news stories, and served as a community forum for Texas Democrats.

Now, we need you to continue the tradition.

KT, Matt and I aren't going anywhere entirely, but our roles are changing. For some time now, KT and Matt have worked diligently on a new design for BOR. Within weeks -- and possibly days -- we'll have the new site layout up and running, and with the new site we want to have new writers. Not just one, and not just two. We want eight or ten writers. We want writers from across Texas, not just from Austin. We want new voices from new backgrounds, able to write and analyze politics from Beaumont to Brownsville, Dallas to El Paso, and everywhere in between.

The qualifications are simple:

• Willingness to take on assigned writing
• Ability to brainstorm and creatively develop your own analysis
• Strong technical writing
• A passion for developing the way we think, understand, and act as Democrats in Texas

We will have much more on the future of BOR -- including the new roles KT, Matt, myself, Katherine and others will play -- in the coming days. Broadly speaking, though, know that we have developed a plan to double, then triple, our traffic. We are going to aggressively market our site, expand our readership and -- with that -- hopefully expand our influence in the state of Texas.

All we need is you to lead. If you want to be considered for a writing position on BOR, please send your name, contact information, where you currently live, areas/topics of interest you'd want to write about, and two writing samples of your choosing to phillip@burntorangereport.com. Thanks, and good luck!

(Part of a series on San Antonio's municipal elections at Concerned Citizens)

We haven't even gotten through the 2010 election cycle and candidates for the 2011 municipal election are already jockeying for position, especially in District 1. In 2011 Councilwoman Mary Alice Cisneros will be vacating her office due to term limits (she was not covered by the term limit extensions) and a field is already developing to run for her office. Greg Jefferson, columnist with the San Antonio Express-News, detailed some of the early political moves by District 1 candidates. It a good read and he's a lot more cued in on the race than I am so I'll leave any candidate analysis to him at this point. But a big question in mind is what would make a good District 1 candidate?
District 1 is probably one of the most interesting districts in all of the ten city council districts in San Antonio. Stretching from Loop 410 down to just south of Southtown and running from Fredericksbug to McCullough it covers the core geographic area of San Antonio. It also is one of the most diverse districts in terms of economic, ethnic, cultural and business interests. It takes a flexible and dynamic person to truly represent this district properly.

The district holds some of the most expensive and historic homes in San Antonio in the Monte Vista and King William neighborhoods as well as some of the poorest on the westside. It also contains some of the early suburban expansion areas north of Hildebrand all the way to Loop 410. Probably the most dynamic neighborhood of the district is the urban core which is experiencing a revival thanks to the work of Mayor Castro and urban developers, including the newly rezoned River North area straddling the new Museum Reach of the San Antonio River.

Understanding the development needs of these residential areas is a critical factor for any candidate or council member in District 1. The infrastructure needed to rebuild the urban core is probably one of the most critical needs for the area. River North is an area that has been neglected in the past and left to a hodge podge of warehouses, older homes, and small businesses. With the rezoning of the area to form based codes, street and pedestrian infrastructure will be necessary to help meet the needs of development.

It has a thriving art and theater community in various areas with a large concentration in Southtown, home to the First Friday Art Walk. Recently the Tobin Foundation committed $15 million for renovation of Municipal Auditorium into a new Tobin Center for the Performing Arts. Coupled with the Majestic Theater, McCombs Theater, and Aztec Theater it will help expand performing arts in the city's urban core and increase the cultural offerings in San Antonio.

The majority of the city's GLBT community as well as nightclubs reside in the district. Both of the city's gay pride celebrations take part in the district. A council member must be able to address this diversity of these communities and understand their needs for funding or tolerance, something that seemed lacking in prior administrations. Having a candidate who would meet regularly with and participate in the activities of these communities could show progress for the city.

District 1 is also home to the governmental and business districts of San Antonio with both city and county governments headquartered in its downtown section. Frost Bank, HEB, San Antonio Credit Union, AT&T, and many other major businesses as well as many of San Antonio's major law firms are located in the district, giving it the most diverse business culture of the city.

Any candidate or office holder in the area must be able to meet with and help address the challenging needs of business in an area that must balance business growth with historic and cultural preservation. Sometimes these two factors clash so mediation and compromise are needed to help foster integration between the two. Having that skill can help build a district that could serve as a role model for all urban growth in Texas and the U.S.

It is also the home of many of the cities most historical structures. In the downtown area are two of the states most visited tourist attractions in the Alamo and Riverwalk. The King William Historic District has some of the oldest and most majestic homes in San Antonio with an ever increasing tourist traffic walking through the district. It is also home to the offices of the San Antonio Conservation Society as well as many of the Society's property holdings.

A person with an understanding of the historic asset San Antonio has can help grow San Antonio as a historic and preservationist destination for Texans and others. Recognizing the care and dignity that many of our city's historic sites and structures require is almost a must for the holder of the District 1 seat on council. Championing those needs and causes with the rest of council can help increase San Antonio's attraction worldwide, both for tourists and for business.

Finally, it holds an ethnic and economic cross-section that is wider than any other part of the city. Being cognizant of those groups and their needs will be a crucial skill of a District 1 council member. Understanding how to bring these groups together to help grow as one district could change the face of the district in many ways. This is probably the toughest challenge of any council member in the district but could also serve as the greatest accomplishment of the member during their tenure on council.

I have only had the opportunity to meet one of the potential candidates for District 1, Chris Forbrich. Until this year, I was more focused on District 8 where I lived. Now as a resident of District 1 I plan to find out more about the other possible candidates to see how well they understand the needs of the district. With such a diverse and dynamic district, it really needs a candidate with strong skills to help it grow and thrive in the seventh largest city in the nation.

From the Dallas Morning News:

“I have known since 2006 that I wouldn’t seek another term,” the senator said in a telephone interview. “I wanted to announce it on my own terms and in my own way."

Hutchison, first elected to the Senate in 1993, said the swearing-in of the new Congress, among other things, made her feel it was the right moment to announce her resignation.

My one question: If Senator Hutchison knew she wouldn't run again, why did she vote against the Dream ACT?

Your question, to consider: what Democrats should run for her seat in 2012?

Update by KT:  The TDP released the following statement in response to the news.

“Kay Bailey Hutchison has changed her mind about retirement so many times, she could be known as the Brett Favre of the Senate.  Assuming this time she’s serious, it is good news for Texas families, who Sen. Hutchison has failed to adequately represent.  Just in recent weeks, her vote against the DREAM Act and vote to maintain “don’t ask, don’t tell” shows her unwillingness to look beyond partisan politics to support smart policy. 

“Texas is a growing state and our gain of four new congressional seats puts us in the national spotlight. On Election Day 2012, we will offer Texas voters a Democratic U.S. Senate candidate whose dedication to our state would never be in question.”  

Update by Matt: Simply, Bill White says no. White told reports at the San Antonio Express News he will not run for Senate in 2012.

The only minor surprise is Bill White, who’s saying no. “Sen. Hutchison has worked hard for Texas for many years,” he told us in an e-mail a few minutes ago. “I wish her and her family well. I look forward to going back into business this year, and will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2012.”

On January 11, Gromer Jeffers of the Dallas Morning News posted the story, Leppert's likely departure sets off scramble to field Dallas mayor candidates, indicating that incumbent Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert is "all but certain" to not run for re-election.  Based on previous rumors about Mayor Leppert's future plans, this could be likely to begin building a statewide campaign to take on Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2012 Republican Primary.  Time will tell what Leppert intends.

I mentioned in my previous post, Gearing up for 2011 in Dallas, that there were at least two Dallas City Councilors waiting to see if Mayor Leppert would run for re-election.  Since that article, we already have one candidate who has announced their campaign and potentially four additional contenders.  So without further ado, let's take a look into each of these candidates.  I am including in parentheses what region of Dallas each candidate resides within.

Jim Moore (Preston Hollow) - Announced

Jim Moore gets listed first because he is the only candidate that has formally announced his campaign.  Jim is a criminal defense attorney that resides in Preston Hollow (North Dallas) in City Councilwoman Linda Koop's district 11.  While Jim may have voted in the 2010 Democratic Primary, his track record of voting in the 2006, 2002, 1998, 1996, 1994, and 1992 Republican Primaries give an indication of his political leanings.  Unfortunately, Mr. Moore did not vote in any primary in 2008 or 2004.

Gromer Jeffers stated in his article that Jim is virtually an unknown compared to other potential candidates, and will have his work cut out for him.  Since Jim announced his candidacy before 12/31/2010, it will be interesting to see what his upcoming finance report has to say about his campaign.  Mr. Moore's campaign could be a potential dark horse, but that remains to be seen.

http://jimmooreformayor.com/
http://www.facebook.com/JimMooreforMayor

Angela Hunt (Lower Greenville) - Potential

Angela Hunt has represented District 14 on the Dallas City Council since 2005.  She was voted "Best Council Person" by the Dallas Voice in 2008 and 2009, and also "Most Effective Councilmember" by the Dallas Morning News in 2008.  Councilwoman Hunt has also been a strong Democratic supporter, and many see her as a possible rising star for higher office.

Polling of Dallas City Councilmembers has suggested that Angela is one of the most well-known and popular members of the Dallas City Council on a citywide basis.  However, her opposition to many of Mayor Leppert's policies and initiatives has put Angela at odds with many local leaders of the business community.

If Angela decides to run, she will need to raise several million dollars in order to win.  Tom Leppert spent over $2.1 million dollars in 2007 in his election campaign.  However, as former Dallas City Councilman and current School Board President Larry Duncan has proven multiple times, money is not everything when it comes to local municipal races.  As a three term councilwoman, Mrs. Hunt is no stranger to campaigning, and can build a grassroots support network throughout the city.

http://www.angelahunt.com/
http://www.facebook.com/angelahuntdallas

Ron Natinsky (Far North Dallas) - Potential

Ron was first elected to the Dallas City Council in 2005 along with Angela Hunt.  Councilman Natinsky is a former businessman who has a strong track record of voting in Republican primaries.  While Angela Hunt has a strong history of opposing Mayor Leppert, Ron Natinsky has been the opposite on the matter and been an ardent supporter of the Mayor's policies.  A key indicator that Natinsky is in and Leppert out is the fact that Natinsky has hired local consultant Carol Reed, who worked on Leppert's 2007 campaign as well as other Leppert initiatives such as the Trinity vote.

Ron Natinsky's campaign finance report posted on July 15, 2010 shows that Ron had $51k cash on hand.  A strong start for any candidate running for city council, and Ron has had an additional 6 months to raise more money.  Councilman Natinsky's strong support of Tom Leppert will likely allow him to step in with the business community that has backed the Mayor.  This should allow him to lockup strong support and funds.

One local political consultant bluntly said "Natinsky is so far up Leppert's #%$#@ that you don't know where one ends and the other begins."

http://www.ronnatinsky.com/
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Ron-Natinsky-Campaign/168470643180240

Mike Rawlings (Preston Hollow) - Potential

Mike Rawlings currently sits on the City of Dallas Parks and Recreation Board, which is considered a springboard for potential mayoral or city council candidates.  Mr. Rawlings is also the former CEO of Pizza Hut, and has contributed thousands of dollars to both national and local Democratic candidates, including 2010 gubernatorial candidate Bill White.

If Mike Rawlings steps into the race, it is highly likely that he will lock up much of the Democratic fundraising community behind his banner.  He is already independently wealthy and lives in Preston Hollow so he can also self-fund his own campaign.  This will easily make Rawlings one of the heavies in the race should he decide to run.

Since Mike Rawlings has not actually announced, he has no campaign website. I am including an article below discussing his appointment to the Parks and Recreation Board by Mayor Leppert for your reading enjoyment, instead.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/stories/DN-rawlings_07met.ART.State.Edition1.29c92bc.html

Brint Ryan (Preston Hollow) - Potential

Brint Ryan's name came up in a recent poll asking about potential mayoral candidates.  Neither Brint nor the polling firm is saying who was behind the poll.  However, Brint has been included due to his past willingness to run for elected office, and proven he is not shy about spending his wealth in an election campaign.

Brint Ryan is the CEO of Ryan, Inc, which is a large tax services firm based in Dallas and founded by Brint.  Ryan, Inc is also where potential 2012 Senate candidate John Sharp works as a Principal out of their Austin office.  In 2009, Brint Ryan made an unsuccessful run to take the open seat in District 13 that was vacated by Mitch Rasansky.  While Brint lost to Ann Margolin, he did spend over $1 million dollars in his election campaign.

Brint has shown in 2009 that he is not above spending large amounts of money to build name recognition, and can easily self-fund his campaign.  Brint also has the benefit of hindsight from 2009 to understand the potential pitfalls in his background that his opponents will try to exploit.

Unfortunately, Brint's voting history is sparse at best, which also dogged him during his own council campaign.  During this campaign, he labeled himself as a conservative businessman.  Since then he has gone on to vote in the 2010 Republican primary.  All of these factors should give an indication of Brint's political leanings.

http://www.ryan.com/G-Brint-Ryan.aspx

Time for a Mayor that shares Democratic values

Dallas County is a solid Democratic county in North Texas.  This was proven for a third time in a row when every countywide Democratic candidate won their election, despite the terrible losses in the State Legislature.  As Dallas County is blue so is the City of Dallas.  Presently, 8 Democrats sit on a 14 member City Council, which is led by a Republican mayor.  In the 2009 Municipal Election, over 22,000 people who voted have also voted in two of the last three Democratic Primaries.  Compare this to the roughly 14,000 people who voted in two of the last three Republican primaries and also voted in the 2009 Municipal Election.

I stated in my previous post that first-time partisan candidates who have campaigned and served in non-partisan offices typically make stronger candidates.  They have a better idea of how to campaign, report finances, and also serve as an elected official.  It is time that Democrats help elect their future leaders to municipal offices, such as Dallas Mayor and City Council.

James Van Sickle
http://www.darwood.us
http://www.facebook.com/DarwoodTechnology

In case yesterday wasn't filled with enough stress and tension, the Texas Democratic Party has released a "film trailer" packed with scary characters and high stakes action.

What do you think the tag line of the 82nd session should be?  

The hits just keep on coming:

Happy Columbus Day, everyone. The Texas Progressive Alliance is imagining a world in which John Lennon lived to see his 70th birthday as it brings you this week's roundup.

• Off the Kuff published interviews with Democratic candidates Jeff Weems, Hector Uribe, and Hank Gilbert.
  
  
• BossKitty at TruthHugger is disgusted again. This is a very serious election. America is the deer in the headlights and appears to be frozen. So, the last thing I want to hear is "its a TRUCK"! This election is all spin and conspiracy, not that previous elections haven't been. But this one is critical because even hinting at rolling back what forward motion has been achieved. Israel is sliding, America is sliding and the radicals are ready. This is NOT the choice American's should face.
  
  
• Bay Area Houston says during Breast Cancer Awareness Month Americans are truly a sick bunch of people.

• Mathew Dowd, a Bushbot, longs for the glory days of the Bush presidency and envisions Rick Perry as president. That sound you hear is CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme retching uncontrollably.

• nytexan at BlueBloggin is beyond irritation at the continual hypocrisy of Congress and Republican policy of NO. Coburn and Brown Take Pay Raise and Say No To Federal Employees. It’s stunning that the US Congress can continue to give themselves pay raises every years and then claim that federal employees are overpaid. Tom Coburn believes “We need to expect more, and we need to pay less.”
  
  
• The Texas governor is apparently going to finish the 2010 campaign much the way he started it: remaining cowardly, and trying to get re-elected based solely on his good looks. WCNews at Eye On Williamson posts (again) on the failure of our states leadership, Public school finance continues to be a problem.
  
  
• WhosPlayin writes about why it is so important for Texans to log on to www.donatelifetexas.com and check the status of their organ donor registration, and sign up if they are not already.
  
  
• Neil at Texas Liberal attended the Governor's race debate on the topic of education that was held in Houston

KT concluded his excellent post about Rick Perry's Natural Advantage by saying:

Overcoming it in the next 25 days will be nothing short of a miracle, but overcoming it, eventually, is nothing short of mandatory for the sake of our state, our system, and our sanity.

I fully endorse KT's post, with the one important caveat that I don't think it will take a miracle to win. I think it will take an extraordinary, unparalleled amount of hard work, but I think his message -- public service vs. political machine -- is compelling enough and versatile enough to adapt to any environment.

And with that, I wanted to officially invite everyone to the Rally to Restore Competence with Bill White on October 19, 2010 on the UT West Mall at 4:30pm. Almost 300 have already RSVP'ed on Facebook -- come join all of us as we try to restore a little bit of competence and a little bit of sanity back to Texas.

In any other state, in any other year, you'd think it would be a sure bet that a politician like Rick Perry would be headed for defeat - he's the perfect example of the type of incumbent that should. Consider the following -

1. Rick Perry had serious primary challengers from the right and left who spent millions attacking him and forced him to drain his entire bank account.


2. Rick Perry has a serious Democratic opponent - the former Mayor of America's 4th largest city, who's done the impossible in matching the GOP's typical money advantage. 


3. Rick Perry is the epitome of incumbent - having been in one office or another for a quarter century and having been Governor for a whole decade. This weekend he refused to rule out a bid for a fourth term should be be re-elected. 


4. Rick Perry doesn't have just one legitimate scandal, but multiple ones - shades of bribery, payola, land deals, hidden schedules, and countless cases of using his public office for personal or political desires. It's not like there is a debate on the question of whether Rick Perry has skeletons in the closet - we're just unsure of how many and what size.


5. Rick Perry goes full steam ahead, opponents be damned. That includes casting the media as opponents - refusing to meet with editorial boards, answering reporters' questions, or engaging in any debate with anyone.

How Rick Perry campaigns is the very definition of arrogance. He's willing to ignore the Press, bypass direct mail & yard signs, and stake his campaign on Tweeter as if openly tempting fate - just to prove that he can do it. It's the most frustrating thing in the world - both for the media who want an honest account of how government is run, and for many a Democratic activist. And at the end of the day, there's little that we can do about it - at least, in the next 30 days.

I think this all boils down to Rick Perry's Natural Advantage. I define this in two simple parts.

1. The Shrinking Media


2. Blissful Ignorance

I'll start with the Shrinking Media: Multiple writers on this site including Glenn Smith, Matt Glazer, and Phillip Martin have all opined on the decline of the Texas Press - from the decreasing number of political writers, the closing of reporting bureaus, and the sideways to downward trend in circulation. With a state growing as fast as Texas, enough so to receive a whopping 4 new members of Congress in redistricting, even sideways reader growth is not enough to keep our citizenry informed.

We live in a state of just under 25 million people. The top 5 major daily newspapers have a combined daily circulation of 1.2 million according to the latest Audit Bureau of Circulations. A rough estimate of the top 50 Texas newspapers by circulation still only gives newspapers a reach of 3.6 million; and many of those don't have dedicated political writers or the depth of coverage the major dailies are still able to produce for the time being. And while Texas has one of the largest political blogospheres of any state, the Texas Tribune is the only entity that appears to have captured any energy onine, with an aurience of 220,000 in July. Otherwise, upstart ventures like Newspaper Tree, the Texas Independent, Texas Watchdog, & The Austin Post, would be lucky if their readership broke 100,000 combined.

I focus on print media because it is the one place where we can have long form articles, multiple part series, and the time to truly inform the public when it comes to political stories which we know are full of nuance, background, and angles. TV reporting is an important part of communicating to the public, but we still use it as a crutch, relied upon to amplify traditional political reporting. Even if you take TV and Print together, we're still talking about a depressingly weak saturation of the public with politically tinged news.

Texas is a big state with dozens of media markets and major cities, the 4th highest illiteracy rate among US States, a younger than average population, and multiple widely spoken languages. We are not a state dominated by one city, one newspaper, or one TV station. Other than "Texan" we are not culturally unified. As a result, we rarely see the "Media" in any of its forms talking about the same story at the same time for a sustained duration, other than maybe faux news like the Governor shooting a coyote. Even major devastating hurricanes don't rise to this level as what's happening to Houston may not be the top story in El Paso or Midland.

So how is this part of Rick Perry's Natural Advantage? When you take all of the components above as they relate to the Shrinking Media you are left with this- Texas has an electorate that is under-informed and near impossible to inform with even the most basic narratives. It's a simple statement, and seemingly obvious I know, but relates to the second component of my argument.

The other factor is Blissful Ignorance: I'll illustrate this with Jason Embry's commentary in the Austin American-Statesman just a few days ago.

Texas leads in job creation, but it faces a massive budget shortfall. Is anybody else confused? Gov. Rick Perry is ahead of Democratic challenger Bill White in large part because Texans see the state doing better than most others during a national economic nosedive. And yet this newspaper and others frequently print stories that detail the layoffs, spending cuts and accounting tricks that lawmakers will consider next year when they confront a state budget shortfall estimated to be as high as $21 billion. Multiple polls have shown that Texans who believe the state/economy is on the right track or getting better are overwhelmingly for Rick Perry. Conversely, Texans who believe the state/economy are on the wrong track or getting worse are breaking for Bill White. It's one of the strongest indicators other than political affiliation for predicting which candidate a voter will prefer. It's clear that voters are living in two different realities.

• In one reality, Rick Perry's leadership has resulted in Texas doing less worse than most states and day to day life is about the same as it has always been- other than the loss of your BP stock's dividend in your 401k. You acknowledge that there will be a budget shortfall, but every state has one and it will be fixed just like Perry did last time without much fuss. And if the budget has to be cut, all the better, because government is bloated with services that you don't use anyways.


• In the other reality, the one that most reporters live in and are tired of writing about, the Texas economy is now feeling the pains of the rest of the nation. The foundation upon which the future economy is based has major cracks. This is due to an education system led by a state board that quibbles about facts, a health care system that leaves 1 out of ever 4 Texans uninsured, and a government that is prepared to cut deep into a social safety net which is threadbare to begin with. The fundamental basics of life for millions of people are just numbers on paper for a Governor who's too busy being a badass to engage in an honest conversation about the reality of his current 'economic success'.

This is Bill White's real challenge: It's not about convincing voters to choose between him and Rick Perry; it's convincing voters to choose between these two realities. He has to educate voters about the truth, the sad truth, and the whole truth that we live in the second depressing reality. The Shrinking Media gets it - they've been writing about reality for a decade. But they are tired, bored, and even as an ally in truth, talking to relatively fewer and fewer voters- voters who don't want to know or believe the truth because it is upsetting, unpleasant, and frankly repetitive. After all, it's far easier, not to mention human nature, to remain Blissfully Ignorant. And that's the terrible truth that I see as Rick Perry's Natural Advantage.

Overcoming it in the next 25 days will be nothing short of a miracle, but overcoming it, eventually, is nothing short of mandatory for the sake of our state, our system, and our sanity.

The Democratic Governors Association announced today that the committee brought in another record amount in the third quarter, fueled by explosive growth in contributions from grassroots donors. Joining impressive fundraising by other Democratic committees, the DGA raised $10 million in the third quarter, its third consecutive record-breaking quarter.

The DGA is now on pace to spend triple what it spent in the last equivalent election cycle. With less than five weeks to go, the DGA has a record $13 million on hand. Just as importantly, independent groups that the DGA supports - such as Lone Star First in Texas, Building a Stronger Ohio and Bay State Future in Massachusetts- have an additional $3 million on hand. The DGA spent just shy of $14 million on all the races in 2006.

Why is this important for Texas?

The DGA has already invested tens of millions of dollars in the most important states up for grabs in 2010 and will make sure states such as Florida, Georgia, Minnesota and Texas - to name just a few pickup opportunities - have the necessary resources to compete to the end.

It's nice to be on the receiving end of our national committees for once.  

The 23rd annual AIDS Walk Austin is a little over a week away - Sunday, October 17. If you are in the Austin area, you really should come down to City Hall. Registration opens at 12:30, step-off is at 2. As I write this, I am the 3rd-highest fundraiser for the Walk - I've raised 54% of my goal, and the Walk as a whole has raised 52% of their goal amount.

AIDS Services of Austin provides numerous vital services, both in HIV prevention and services for persons with HIV & AIDS.
There is a page on the website where they asked people why they walk. Here are some of the responses (warning some of them, especially the first one, may make you cry):

Why Christine walks:

I have lost two little brothers to AIDS. My youngest died in April of 1992. I lost the second on the morning of last years' AIDS Walk, 10/18/09. Myself and my team did the walk in his memory. I walk for them and anyone who may have AIDS. I walk because I can and to raise money for education about this disease. Join me.

Why Stephanie walks:

Living in the world with no purpose or cause is a devastating way to exist in this world. There are so many people whose lives can be transformed, renewed, and rejuvenated by a simple act. Making a lifestyle out of helping others is a duty that we all can do in our own way... I am at a point in my life that I realize that I need to give more than I receive, that there are so many things that I as an individual can do to help someone, and that by optimizing my potential as a person, others will see the light within my life and be motivated to maximize their potential as well. People helping people--this is what life should be about!! So I walk to support my community, I walk because I can help, and I walk because want my life to be a catalyst for positive change. I am so excited! Join the walk and tell a friend!!---Team SOLE Train

Why Brandi walks:

This reason I do the AIDS Walk is for me, for my son who was born with the disease, for everyone else who has it, and also to show everyone that you don't have to be afraid. Come out and walk for everyone who lives with this in silence. That is why I walk!

Why Stephanie walks:

"I walk because my life has been impacted by addictions from birth. Addictions causing hurt, pain, and turmoil that have lasting impressions.  I have lost many friends to AIDS, know many people living with HIV/AIDS, and AIDS has even reached my family. Although my life was spared, and the chains that bound my family to chemical depenancy that altered behavior and dismissed the ability to think straight have been broken; our lives are still affected forever. In my new life as an HIV/AIDS Pevention Specialist and Counselor, I will give my all to fight/educate/mediate and be passionate to the needs of others impacted by this epedemic 'till the end. 'Till there is a cure. Walk with me.

Why Terri walks:

"My first AIDS Walk Austin was done on a whim that changed my life. I met people there who had been affected by HIV/AIDS and have been involved in the volunteer community ever since. I walk today because I have seen the faces of AIDS, they are many and they are varied, it is something I can do to help."

Why Jerrol walks:

"I will walk again for my old friend Victor who has gone down the path to the clearing.  I'll walk for my (former) colleagues, Jackie, Michael, Becky, Stewart, John, Susan, Sue, Ben, Joette, Karen, Rindy, Rose, Michelle, and others I have worked with in the past and some I continue to work with.  I love all of you and I want you to know how important I still feel it is to walk for AIDS.  I'll walk for the absolute fun of it - a much needed and welcome emotion at any point in time - but especially now.  I'll walk because I believe in the fight against HIV/AIDS; and I always will!"

Why Meghan walks:

"I walk so people do not forget those who have died from HIV and those who are living with HIV. We still have a great deal of work to do. People are still suffering a great deal from the stigma associated with HIV and we need to continue to raise awareness and educate the community to keep this issue from fading into the background."

Why Renee M walks:

"I walk for my mom, Vickie, who died 15 years ago, when I was 12 years old. I walk because I am not ashamed. I walk to give and receive support. I walk to raise awareness. I walk for those who can not."

Why an ASA client walks:

"I walk the AIDS Walk for my life living with AIDS but most of all for my friends who lost their lives to AIDS. We need to find a cure so we can save many lives. Please come walk..."

Why La'Toya walks:

"I walk because I want to help end the stigma of HIV and AIDS. I walk because I am a part of a community being highly affected and infected by this disease. I walk because the community is where education about HIV and AIDS begins. I walk because I have the power to give and meet others who can share their story. I walk because I want to help promote and provide positive outcomes for a disease many see as a negative. I walk because I can.

"I walk because I believe when people come together in huge numbers we make a huge difference. When there is a difference it's because people listened, and when people listen, change happens."
La'Toya is a Case Manager at AIDS Services of Austin

Why Laura Morrison walks:

"I know personally the importance of AIDS treatment, because it came too late for my brother, Bill. In 1995 Bill was the 26th person from his group of friends to pass away as a result of the AIDS virus.  That same year, the "cocktail" was introduced.  As a result, his good friend John, who had been extremely ill at the time of Bill's death, is thriving today.

"For over 25 years, AIDS Services of Austin has been the heart and soul for those living with HIV and AIDS in Central Texas. By providing ASA funding for services and support, we can help sustain the health and enhance the quality of life for thousands in our community. Please join me and the Laura's Angels team in support of AIDS Services Austin in the 2009 AIDS Walk Austin."
Laura Morrison is an Austin City Council Member

Why Alisa and Oliver walk:

"Giving back is a core mission of L Style G Style. Building community and creating inclusivity for all generates a more conscious and compassionate city. With so many opportunities to support wonderful organizations, it is events like the AIDS Walk that are near and dear to our hearts.

"The gay and lesbian community has been impacted by friends, family and loved ones who have HIV and AIDS. In honor and support of those we know, we walk proudly for them and invite you to walk alongside us and make the 2009 AIDS Walk a huge success!"
Alisa Weldon and Oliver Everette produce L Style G Style

And why do _I_ walk? I walk because I would have trouble counting the number of people I know who are affected by HIV/AIDS. There are people I love dearly who are HIV+ and I want them to have the care and assistance they need. I can't help them all, but AIDS Services of Austin can, so I help ASA.

Please - can you do the same? Here's my AIDS Walk Austin page. Also, for the second year in a row, my friend Lisa made a gorgeous quilt. You can be entered in a drawing for it by donating here Thanks!

With the only polling in the 17th Congressional district coming from the Republican candidate Bill Flores, it's not entirely surprising that Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards would share his numbers as well.

Yesterday the Edwards campaign released internal polling showing he's trailing Flores by 4 points, as compared to the 12 point deficit Flores's poll showed three weeks ago. Edwards' longtime pollster Bennett, Petts & Normington released a memo outlining their findings.

Findings from our most recent survey conducted October 4-5 show Chet Edwards gaining ground and moving into a tight race with challenger Bill Flores. Over the lass 3 weeks Edwards has cut Flores' margin by more than half, with the race closing from ten points own to only four. Currently, Edwards received 42% of the vote while Flores receives 46% and 11% are still undecided in the race for Congress in TX-17. In a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by a margin of two-to-one, Chet Edwards is in a neck-and-neck race with his opponent. 

The Edwards campaign stated their internal numbers had him down 10 points three weeks ago, which would track with the Flores campaign poll from that time showing a 12 point gap. That gives some credibility to Edwards's release, even with it being partisan internal numbers, because they appear to mirror Flores's partisan internal numbers.

While the DCCC has canceled a week's worth of airtime from October 19-25th, Chet Edwards has picked up the endorsement of the Dallas Morning News. But GOP 2008 Presidential nominee John McCain has cut an ad for Bill Floresin the midst of a multi-million dollar tv ad war which Texas writer Nate Nance has compiled at the Huffington Post.

If Chet were able to pull out a victory next month in the most Republican district held by a Democrat in the U.S. House- especially this cycle- it would be the upset of the year and a testament to the relationship he has built with voters in his district (as well as his field operation).

5:30pm Update: The Texas Tribune has updated their story -- the Governor's office is now trying to backtrack on their response. They have been caught in a blatant lie and now they are stuck lying even more.

UPDATE 4:19pm: Cesinger clarifies that "the governor, not the governor’s office, maintains two schedules. He maintains the political schedule through his campaign office, and the official schedule through the governor’s office." It's unclear, then, how the state office released a political schedule. We're awaiting the governor's office response.

Remember: Rick Perry has said, on television to WFAA, that "I consider everything I'm doing state business." Yet he keeps a private separate schedule that is somehow exempt from public records laws -- despite the fact that Perry has said, "I consider everything I'm doing state business."

Follow-up to this morning's story. Again, from the Texas Tribune: "Governor Responds To "Secret Schedule" Criticism":

Responding to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White's accusations that Gov. Rick Perry had hidden a "secret schedule" from the public, Perry's office said this afternoon that it mistakenly released a "political schedule" to the White campaign, which obtained a Sept. 15 schedule as part of a public information request.

Perry spokeswoman Katherine Cesinger said the office does keep separate schedules for the governor — "an official schedule and a political schedule" — and that the political calendar was "erroneously provided." The office maintains the political schedule is exempt from public records laws.

The Bill White campaign has already released the following video, slamming Perry for his secrecy and pointing out that it is against the law to keep a secret schedule:

Previously on BOR:

• "Part-Time Perry's Secret Schedule Shrouds His "Work" in Privacy"
• "Rick Perry's History of Cover-Up at the Texas Youth Commission"
• "What is Part-Time Perry Hiding? Light Schedule, Lack of Transparency is Troublesome"
• "Bill White's Speech at the Texas Democratic Party Convention: Rick Perry Is In It For Himself"
  

The Texas Tribune has breaking news: "White Campaign Alleges Perry Keeps Secret Schedule"

It appears Gov. Rick Perry keeps a more detailed schedule than what his office has previously released this year. In what might have been a mistake by the governor’s office, Democrat Bill White’s campaign — through an open records request — received one day of Perry’s schedule that actually shows details not included in other publicly-released governor’s schedules. The Sept. 15 schedule received by White’s campaign on Tuesday stands out for including typically omitted information like drive times to and from meetings, briefings with staff, names of staff members involved with each event and minute-by-minute breakdowns of what is set to happen at various Perry appearances. No other schedules released this year show that level of detail.

Perry's schedules have been the subject of White's attacks for some time -- their campaign has its own website, Part-Time Perry, devoted to chronicling the (non)work that Perry does on a regular basis. White's campaign is hitting Perry hard for hiding his schedule from the public. From their press release:

"Rick Perry must immediately release the schedule he's been hiding from Texas taxpayers," said White.

"Rick Perry's doing Rick Perry's business while taking a full state salary and charging taxpayers for his lavish lifestyle."  Perry's own website quotes him saying, "if the taxpayers are picking up the bill, they ought to be able to look at every item on the receipt."

Perry (in)famously said that there's nobody in Texas that works harder than he does. (See the Texas Tribune video,  "Perry Says He Works 24/7, Despite Bare Schedule"). I'd agree to say that there's nobody who looks out for Rick Perry more than Rick Perry. As Bill White has said for months: Rick Perry is in it for himself.

Elise Hu of the Texas Tribune wrote about Perry's spare schedule previously, in her piece: "Perry's Spare Schedule Feeds Transparency Concerns." She also goes into extensive detail about another one of Perry's privacy practices -- deleting e-mails after only keeping them for a week:

Case in point: Perry’s office maintains a policy of deleting its e-mails every seven days, a shorter retention period than almost all other state agencies and major cities. It also allows staffers to decide which e-mails involve state business and thus must be retained, leaving open the possibility that individual employees who aren't well-versed in the law are innocently but irrevocably destroying public records. Perry’s aides have defended the retention policy by saying it simply follows that of his predecessor, George W. Bush. But the destruction of documents can make it difficult, if not impossible, to piece together what happens inside the governor's office. In 2007, for example, reporters were unable to determine what Perry knew about systematic abuse inside juvenile jails, and when he might have known it, because his office deleted e-mails long before the scandal broke.

Finally, here's Perry getting extremely defensive about his schedule in his WFAA interview last week, proclaiming at one point that "I consider everything I'm doing state business"

Perry has famously said, "If they've made anyone who can outwork me yet, please introduce me to him or her." Here's a few people who work harder than you, Rick:

Serious kudos to Jason Embry at the Statesman for originally posting these. Compiling campaign finance reports is tedious but important work. Seriously, many thanks. I've reorganized them by incumbent Party. We'll update our Texas Political Report posts with them soon.

Republican Incumbent Races

Rep. Linda Harper-Brown, R-Irving: $117,752
Democratic challenger Loretta Haldenwang: $27,459

Rep. Joe Driver, R-Garland: $129,428
Democratic challenger Jamie Dorris: $25,639

Democratic Incumbent Races

Rep. Valinda Bolton, D-Austin: $107,946
Republican challenger Paul Workman: $134,623

Rep. Diana Maldonado, D-Round Rock: $192,627
Republican challenger Larry Gonzales: $231,175

Rep. Robert Miklos, D-Mesquite: $51,976
Republican challenger Cindy Burkett: $19,910

Rep. Carol Kent, D-Dallas: $147,532
Republican challenger Stefani Carter: $66,937

Rep. Kristi Thibaut, D-Houston: $84,982
Republican challenger Jim Murphy: $225,030

Rep. Joe Moody, D-El Paso: $63,747
Republican challenger Dee Margo: $192,353

Rep. Joe Heflin, D-Crosby: $82,659
Republican challenger Jim Landtroop: $103,855